PURDUE 21 ILLINOIS 7
How poor has the Illini offense been this season? In ten games, they have failed to score double digit points in half of them. Take away that waste of time against Charleston Southern, and the Illini are averaging just 13.8 points a game. It's even worse when you just talk about the Big Ten games (10.5 ppg). We are finding out the hard way how hard it is to win games when you can't score. It doesn't matter how good the defense or special teams play, if you can't score in a game where points determine the winner, you won't win.
It doesn't seem to matter who the Illini play either. Whether it's a good defense or a bad one, Illinois can't do anything on offense. Why should it be any different against Purdue?
The only thing that seems out of the ordinary defensively with Purdue when looking at their games this season is the 44 points they gave up to Minnesota. Like Illinois, the Boilermakers are having a less than stellar season, but that doesn't mean that haven't been competitive. They lost at Notre Dame by only three points, they took Ohio State to overtime before falling, and just last week they got their first Big Ten win this season at Iowa.
While Purdue sits at 4-6, their record as you can see can be a bit misleading. A play here or a play there and they could be a .500 team or better. With Illinois and Indiana to finish the regular season, they still have a chance to become bowl eligible. I don't know how this team will fair against the Hoosiers next week, but Saturday I think they get win #5.
Also, I'm trying to think, but to my knowledge there has only been one time this season when the Illini won against the spread (week 1 against Western Michigan). I don't think they're was anything on the Charleston Southern game, so I'm not including that one. This week, the Illini are anywhere between 4.5 to 7 point underdogs to Purdue. Based on history, it makes sense to pick Purdue by at least seven points. Let's hope the Illini can break this streak.
What do you guys think? Do the Illini finally win a Big Ten game, or does Purdue bring Boiler Order to Champaign? Let me know with your thoughts and predictions below. Talk to you guys after Saturday.
"Look at me! We're playing basketball....and I recruited this many players for 2013!"