Efficiency Stats: What a Difference a Half Makes
Second half gets ugly for the Illini in Ann Arbor.
UPDATE: Here's a look at the Illini's season-to-date efficiency numbers. Despite an ugly win on Thursday and a double-digit loss on Sunday, things don't look that much different since the last time I updated these numbers on 2/18.
The Illini have dropped a bit in the Ken Pomeroy rankings, down to #34 overall this week. Both offense and defense slipped a bit, but not enough to drop Illinois very far here. The Illini were helped in Sunday's loss because Michigan is so good, and Pomeroy adjusts his efficiency ratings based on quality of competition. With the Wolverines being #8 overall, that kept the Illini from falling too far. Click to the left to enlarge the screenshot, or just click here to see Pomeroy's entire list as of this morning.
There was also very little change in the Illini's efficiency numbers in Big Ten only games, as the Illini remain at 1.02 points per possession on both offense and defense. I corrected a flaw in my pace calculation this week. I was using possessions per game, rather than possessions per 40 minutes, so I had been giving teams credit for faster play simply because they had some overtime games on the schedule. Wisconsin in particular was effected by that error, as the Badgers have played four overtime periods in conference play. Just click on the screen shot to the left to take a closer look. U of I alum John Gasaway should have the same numbers tomorrow in his Tuesday Truths, but with more insight.
John Groce was on-the-air with Brian Barnhart, Dave Loane and Dave Gentry this morning and talked a lot about the difference in play between halves one and two.
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Illinois led by three at the half at Michigan after this crazy shot from Brandon Paul.
And the Illini had the edge in the efficiency stats as well. They read like this at the break:
- Illinois 1.04 PPP
- Illinois 48.3 eFG%
- Illinois 47.1 OReb%
- Illinois 20.1 TO%
- Michigan 0.95 PPP
- Michigan 52.0 eFG%
- Michigan 23.1 OReb%
- Michigan 20.4 TO%
Not bad, right? The offensive rebounding in particular was excellent for the Illini, and they led 31-28. But, the Wolverines came out smoking in the second half, and here's how the numbers read by the end of the game:
- Illinois 0.93 PPP
- Illinois 48.3 eFG%
- Illinois 26.7 Oreb% (ZERO offensive rebounds in the 2nd half)
- Illinois 20.1 TO%
- Michigan 1.15 PPP
- Michigan 57.1 eFG%
- Michigan 25.9 OReb%
- Michigan 16.1 TO%
Not hard to see how the Illini lost by 13 points with those numbers. John Groce was certainly disappointed with the effort in the second half.
I will have more on season-to-date numbers for the Illini coming up tomorrow. Sorry I didn't get to that after the last game. I was working on prep for the St. Thomas More girls team and their two games at state over the weekend. Congratulations to the Sabers for their runner-up finish.
Thanks for reading.
Face it Brandon Paul only seems to have in him 1 game a year when he is terrific. Maybe, he is a head case and needs to realize if intends to go any further he has to let go of the 1 game and concentrate on the rest. He will not make it in the NBA with the way he plays. The best that he can hope for is the instruction league where some coach might make him see the truth. He could perhaps make it in Europe or Asia with a lot of improvement. Seems like a real good kid, but it needs to see the follies of his play.
If Sam "the sham" Manascalco can make a Russian b-ball team their is somewhere in Europe or Asia that will accept B Pauls attitude & abilities. However, I would caution him to be very aware of the drug laws and restrictions in some of those countries. They don't care if you once played for the U of I or whatever your video game level might be......Such a sad waste of talent.
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