Illini a 5 seed?

Let's go back to last Wednesday. Illinois fans were blue and even through their orange-tinted glass, the thought of staying within 15 points of No.1 Indiana was seemed like a long shot.

An NCAA tournament berth seemed out of the question.

That feels like eons ago. After a thrilling upset of the top-ranked Hoosiers, a road win at Minnesota and a comfortable victory against nemesis Purdue, Illinois is not only in the NCAA tournament today, the Illini are in line for a favorable seed.

A group of 20 media members are currently meeting in Indianapolis today putting together a mock bracket as if the season ended today. 

CBS Chicago's Adam Hoge is one of the 20 media members making up the committee. He reports Illinois' road win at Gonzaga was a huge selling point with the committee which granted Illinois a No. 5 seed.

Here's Adam's update of today's developments.

And here's what happened on Day 1.

The bracket won't be complete until later this afternoon and the Illini could move up or down a couple of spots in the final process. But for now, they're in solid shape.

What a difference a week makes.

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IlliniMike05 wrote on February 15, 2013 at 12:02 pm

Lunardi still only has Illinois as a No. 10 seed. Given the bizarre resume Illinois has, this kind of dissonance is unsurprising. I thought a No. 5 was alarmingly high and I think Lunardi- who's overrated in the bracket prediction game to begin with- still has us way too low. Given the extreme highs (the nation's No. 2 schedule according to Kenpom, five Top 25 wins, three of them away from home) and extreme lows (two "bad" losses, four home losses, a 5-7 conference record) Illinois' weird resume has yielded, I think somewhere in the middle is right. Kenpom, Sagarin, RPI and the human polls all have us in the 25-35 range right now. I think that's about correct, and if the tournament was seeded today I think we'd be a No. 8 seed.

illini82 wrote on February 15, 2013 at 1:02 pm

Let's beat Northwestern, Nebraska, PSU and Iowa first before we have this conversation. In fact let's just beat Northwestern first.

That would be 9-9 and should be  a 6 seed IMO.

 

7-11, conf, 0-1 BTT  Bubble time.depends on upsets but we have quality wins.

7-11 conf,  1-1 BTT  Should be in but you never know 10-12 seed.

8-10 conf, 0-1  BTT   In the NCAA  but a BTT win would help seeding. 9-10 seed.

8-10 conf, 1-1  BTT  In the tourney and an 8-9 seed. 2 BTT wins 7-8 seed.

9-9 conf,  0-1  BTT   6-7 seed. 

9-9 conf, 1-1  BTT    5-6 seed,  May need 2 BTT wins to get a 5 seed.

Dreamland by some miracle:

10-8 conf,   and no BTT wins...5 seed.  Get a BTT win then 4 seed.

 

8 wins while not a given should be the minimum goal and means getting 3 of 4 from NW,NE, PSU and Iowa.

That means 9 wins is not a long show and attainable. But onlyl if we play like we have the last 3 games and Nov/Dec.

10 wins means a split with scUM or OSU.  Not impossible but not liklely either.  Better matchup vs. OSU. I think a 35% chance to win one of those games. both are road games

 

IlliniMike05 wrote on February 15, 2013 at 4:02 pm

This article was in response to a mock selection the media did this week. This is the exact time to be having this discussion.


You're not on the team. You are free to look past the next game, as it will have zero effect on the team's fortunes.

aaeismacgychel wrote on February 15, 2013 at 2:02 pm

A 5 seed as of right now seems a little high for me, but it does show that the selection committe does indeed seem to not be be considering record in conference, which is something they have alluded they would do this year. That's extremely good news for Illinois. I personally would've put them at a 7 seed based on current resume, which is higher than Lunardi, lower than the mock, and in line with Jerry Palm. They're a remarkable 5-3 against the RPI Top 25, their two "bad losses" @Purdue, vNorthwestern are honestly not all that terrible (even though they sure felt that way)as both teams are hovering around the 100 rpi mark, and with an rpi of 29 and SOS of 5 a high seed is indeed there for the taking.

But before we get ahead of ourselves, we must beat Northwestern at Welsh-Ryan on Sunday and Penn St at the Hall on Thursday. Do that and you're 7-7 in the B10 and in the driver's seat. A miraculous 10-8 in the B10 and Illinois will be at a 4-5 seed pre BTT. 9-9 puts Illinois in the 6-8 range pre BTT. 8-10 will put Illinois in the 9-10 range pre BTT and even with a 1st round loss they would likely still make it. 7-11 puts Illinois directly on the bubble. All we have to do at this point is beat the teams we should beat- win the home games against PSU and Nebraska, beat Northestern on the road, and you're in great position. GO ILLINI!

Moonpie wrote on February 15, 2013 at 5:02 pm

This is so Sleepy Gazoo and so Bushleague Jackson to suggest the Illini as a 5 seed. Really? How about finishing the season before the cheerleading begins anew.How about an actual win over Northwestern and a couple more beyond that before the irresponsible cheerleading begins. This team has no inside game and must shoot tiself to a win.A cheerleader outfit is all you need to "write" for the Sleepy Gazoo.

ElDuderino wrote on February 15, 2013 at 7:02 pm

troll

IlliniMike05 wrote on February 16, 2013 at 1:02 pm

^^Isn't into the whole brevity thing.

carney22 wrote on February 16, 2013 at 12:02 pm

Cowpie, you're just not a happy man, are you? The day isn't complete if you can't make some snarky comment about someone the caliber of Loren Tate. When you've got a CV one-tenth as impressive as his, get back to us . . .

No one here was trying to push the idea that the Illini deserved a No. 5 seed. They were simply reporting what had happened in an NCAA-sanctioned media mock draft. Of course, that wouldn't stop you from putting your own moronic spin on things. You must have such a sad life, investing so much time in trying to irritate others.

IlliniMike05 wrote on February 16, 2013 at 1:02 pm

This has to be a bit you're doing. No one is this stupid. Here's a newsflash: it's not a funny bit, either.


 

aaeismacgychel wrote on February 16, 2013 at 10:02 pm

It isn't necessarily their opinion, Moonpie.  They were simply reporting that the first mock draft sponsored by the NCAA Selection Committee selected Illinois as a legitimate 5 seed based on resume.  I think it's a little high ranking, but remember, the Selection committee is not supposed to take into account record in conference, just overall resume.  If true, Illinois' resume looks a ton better and I can't say I blame the committee for placing Illinios where they did.  Is Illinois one of the best 20 teams in the nation?  On some days, yes, while on other days they don't even look Top 200, but they do have a fairly solid resume.  Let's just hope they keep up the play they've had the last three times out.

jordanrules wrote on February 15, 2013 at 7:02 pm

Where does Marcus say himself the Illini are a 5 seed? Looks to me like he's relaying what the group who met in Indy this week said about the team, making them a 5 seed. You're really going out of your way to bash "Bushleague Jackson" and "The Speepy Gazoo" when there's nothing there.

blmillini2 wrote on February 15, 2013 at 8:02 pm

moonpie 

 

please stop this constant crxx ----you must have better things to do

JohnWams wrote on February 15, 2013 at 11:02 pm

Moonpie should self euthanize for the good of Illini nation. Groce has this team playing with a lot of energy, and they are fun to watch. They have lost a few games that they shouldn't have, but the big picture is delightful. It is time to dance!!

JohnWams wrote on February 15, 2013 at 11:02 pm

Moonpie should self euthanize for the good of Illini nation. Groce has this team playing with a lot of energy, and they are fun to watch. They have lost a few games that they shouldn't have, but the big picture is delightful. It is time to dance!!

Bear8287 wrote on February 16, 2013 at 12:02 pm

I'd love to see the Illini seeded 5th, but there's still some work to do...

On the flip side, what is with the BPI (or should that be BSPI)?  The Illini are ranked 55th, which after all of the automatic bids would probably leave the Illini out of the tournament.

BPI has Illinois' strength of schedule at 45th.  45th?  You can't be serious.  Name 44 teams in the country that have played a tougher schedule than Illinois. (Actually, the SoS for the Illini is up from the 60's only about a week or so ago in the BPI.)

RPI has Illinois' SoS at 4th only behind Duke, Miami and Minnesota. 

According to the BPI, the team with the toughest schedule so far this year is... USC (playing in the power house PAC12 and the 35th toughest schedule according to RPI). Again according to BPI, Duke has played the 24th toughest schedule...

RPI currently has Illinois at 27th, which would project to about a 7th seed.

No ranking system is perfect, but the BPI seems to have some serious flaws.

Go Illini!

IlliniMike05 wrote on February 16, 2013 at 1:02 pm

BPI is a total nonsense number. It's the "pitcher game score" of attempted statistical analysis of basketball.

aaeismacgychel wrote on February 16, 2013 at 10:02 pm

I wouldn't say "total nonsense" per se simply because I still haven't found a place where they actually define the formula they're using or the analysis technique (other than, "the statistics we perform may be complicated and hard to understand, but here's a summary of what we take into account" which irks me to no end.  Have you found a place where they give a look behind the curtain?  If so, I'd love to see it).  That said, from what I have seen, BPI seems to be one of the sketchier systems out there that really really seems dominated by margin of victory over SOS.  My perception without seeing the formula is that it is far more unbalanced than other "more respectable" systems like Pomeroy or Sagarin due to the lack of log dampening these other methods use.

aaeismacgychel wrote on February 16, 2013 at 10:02 pm

One thing that may assist in giving you a little more insight, Bear, into why Illinois is rated lower in a system like Pomeroy, Sagarin, and BPI than in RPI, is that those other methods are efficiency based compared to RPI which is resume based.  Granted, the other systems do take into account resume, but their main goal is to try and predict how these teams stack up to one another based on how "well" (efficiently) they play offense, defense, rebound, get to the free throw line, and steal/turn the ball over.  So these systems aren't really based on wins or losses, but how you performed in those wins and losses, which is indeed fair, and a good statistical predictor.  So think of it this way:  When you want to compare a team with others based on resume, I'd recommend using RPI with the caveat that it is a flawed system especially in regards to how weak the weakest teams on your schedule are.  When you want to predict who would win a head to head matchup in a best of 1000 series, I'd wholeheartedly recommend Pomeroy or Sagarin.  Hope that helps.

tntsher wrote on February 16, 2013 at 1:02 pm

I can't believe I'm saying this....but....I partially agree (don't hit me, please) with "cowpie"!! We need to play it one game at a time. Let's see what happens tomorrow, and then hopefully, go on to the next game. If we can get 8 B10 W's, then we can talk seeding. I'm excited about this team again, BUT, I was in December too!! One more even short stretch (just a slip up or 2) like before and we are done! I'm a glass 1/2 FULL kind of guy, but right now, I just have 1/2 a glass. Look at that however you want.  

IlliniMike05 wrote on February 16, 2013 at 1:02 pm

No, "we" don't need to play it one game at a time. We aren't on the team. There's nothing we can say that will affect the outcomes. What, specifically, do you feel the consequences could be of us discussing where we could be seeded, where we would be seeded if the tournament was picked today, or what would have to happen for us to end up with a specific seed? Looking ahead is a big part of the fun of being a sports fan. You aren't on the team, and you don't have to stay focused on the next game.  


Further, these aren't projections or predictions of what will happen. It's an analysis of what has happened so far and what the seeding would look like today.

tntsher wrote on February 17, 2013 at 1:02 pm

Easy there big mike...I'm simply putting MY opinioin out there just as you are. Sure, it is fun to be excited about this team again and even having a chance to talk seeding or even being IN the dance. I'm simply saying it might be best to not get too caught up in this discussion because 1 small slip up could still keep us on the outside looking in. I realize that "WE" do not play the game. But I guess you forgot that too when you started this thread and said "WE" WOULD BE AN 8 SEED" ...Don't be so quick to bash anothers opinion, or the way it is worded...you get the meaning of "WE" just as I did when you used it!!

IlliniMike05 wrote on February 19, 2013 at 10:02 am

Saying "it's just my opinion!" is not a cover-all for avoiding criticism for saying dumb things.


And the difference between what I said and what you said was there was no implication from me that there's something we, as fans, need to be doing. The whole, "let's not talk about this too soon, let's just worry about the next game!" thing is so dumb. Yeah, saying "we" as a fan when referring to the team you cheer for is pretty silly too, but at least I wasn't implying that my actions or thoughts will somehow have an effect on the team.


 

tntsher wrote on February 22, 2013 at 12:02 pm

Well mike, in my opinion, which btw, is no better AND NO WORSE thans yours, I disagree. One of the problems with these boards is that there are always certain people who think their opinion is of greater value than others, or worse than that, all others opinions (unless totally alligned with mine) are stupid & useless. They are just that!! OPINIONS and they're like buttholes, everyone has one. The gist of MY opinion wasn't that WE play the games, although the players DO read these things too (any coach will tell you that) but as good as it is to even have a seeding conversation, that as little as 2 games could derail the whole train. Games vs PSU are always tough for us (I'm sorry, for the Fighting Illini) and last night could've very easily ended differently. And the game AT Iowa will be a hard W to get as well. A slip up vs PSU & loss @ Iowa would've probably put "the team" on the outside looking in, with the exception of pulling off a W @ Mich or OSU or a strong B1G tournament. I'm glad THE FIGHTING ILLINI MEN'S BB TEAM beat PSU last night and I hope THEY win several more. It will make it much easier to talk seeding. But, that's just MY opinioin, as stupid as it sounds to you.