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A Kentucky Derby primer

Posted by: Tony Bleill

Wednesday, April 29, 2009 3:10 PM

This time of year is special for horse racing fans for several reasons, but one of the most interesting for people like me -- lifelong, hardcore handicappers -- is getting another glimpse in how the mainstream media views our little sport.

During Kentucky Derby week, the mainstream media discovers horse racing and tries to report on it, usually doing a rather poor job. That's unfortunate because so many non-racing fans tend to pay attention to the Derby and they understandably pay close attention to the media accounts for the big race. So much of it is misinformation. One portion of their coverage -- the technical aspects of actually handicapping the race -- can be downright comical, but it also offers an opportunity. If the betting public actually listens to these hacks trying to handicap a race, they'll be putting themselves in a poor (pun intended) position to win money on the race.

In that regard, I'm offering a handicapper's perspective that you won't see on NBC, or read in The New York Times, or any other mainstream outlet. I've followed all of these horses since they debuted as 2-year-olds, and here are some thoughts that probably differ from what you'll hear in most other places.

A rundown:

I WANT REVENGE: The probable favorite, he's listed at 3-1 on the morning line, but I think he'll end up somewhere closer to 4-1. The mainstreamers -- and, sadly, even some hardcore handicappers -- are going ga-ga over his win in the Wood Memorial, in which he overcame a boatload of trouble to win anyway. He broke very poorly, overcame traffic trouble in the stretch and still won with seeming ease. Here's the other side of the story: In the Wood, I Want Revenge beat 3 pigs, a donkey and a three-legged goat. The only other top-level horse in the field was Imperial Council, and he didn't run his race for whatever reason. I Want Revenge should have beaten that field, even with all the trouble he encountered. That he is receiving extra credit for that is, in my opinion, misguided. As the favorite, I'll let him beat me. He proved nothing to me in the Wood.

PIONEEROF THE NILE: Trained by three-time Derby winner Bob Baffert. He has never raced on a dirt surface, instead sticking to grass and synthetic tracks. How he handles the dirt is the key question surrounding him. I'm conflicted a bit here. Pioneerof the Nile was trained by Hall of Famer Bill Mott as a 2-year-old, and Mott evidently chose to run the colt on grass because he wasn't training well on dirt. However, the horse's pedigree suggests he should relish dirt. His sire, Empire Maker, ran second in the 2003 Derby and later won the Belmont Stakes. His dam, Star of Goshen, ran one of the most impressive races I've ever seen from a filly at Churchill Downs. Plus, Pioneerof the Nile has been training very well on the dirt at Churchill for the past week or so.

Some sharp handicappers whom I respect consider 'Pioneer' to be a throwout. I'm not willing to go that far. If he handles the dirt, he can win.

DUNKIRK: Trained by Todd Pletcher, arguably the best trainer never to win the Derby (he's 0-fer with 21 starters). This is a tremendously talented horse, but he's only had three starts, and that inexperience might catch up to him. Horses need a solid foundation of conditioning to run one and a quarter miles -- for the first time -- in a 20-horse field. If Dunkirk has built enough of that foundation, he's quite dangerous.

FRIESAN FIRE: Trained by Larry Jones, the conditioner of the ill-fated Eight Belles a year ago. 'FF' hasn't run since mid-March, and he's never run farther than one and 1/16 miles, but he's bred well to handle the distance. He'll be forwardly placed in the race and should get a good trip. He benefited from being a part of some soft paces in his wins in Louisiana, but he might get another soft pace on Saturday. Somewhat scary if you play against him, but talented enough to be confident if you're betting on him.

CHOCOLATE CANDY, HOLD ME BACK: Both are late-runners who will be double-digit odds, and both are training well at Churchill. I'm not sure either horse is good enough to win, but both are interesting contenders to pick up the pieces late in the race and get in the second, third or fourth slots.

The ''buzz' horse at Chuchill this week has been DESERT PARTY, who is based in Dubai. He was second to his stablemate, REGAL RANSOM, in his last race, but Desert Party has been training extremely well at Churchill, and he's almost certain to be an underlay on Saturday. (That is, his odds on the toteboard will be lower than his actually chances of winning, a situation that constitutes the worst bet in racing.) I won't be surprised if he runs well, but I'm not convinced he's good enough to threaten the "Big Four" of I Want Revenge, Dunkirk, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire.

I'll return Friday with my Derby selections. Until then, some other thoughts:

--If you've never been the Derby, go. Do it once. It is a slice of Americana that is worth your time and monetary involvement. Yes, the crowds can be a pain. And the hotel prices will be jacked up. But you'll enjoy the experience, by and large, and you'll see some things you never thought you ever would. Besides, the Derby is one of the great people-watching experiences a person can have.

I've been to two Derbies (1998, 2003). I don't feel a need to go every year, and most folks probably feel the same way. But I have great memories of those trips (good weather helped), and I think most people would feel the same way. One tip: If you get to the track early, spend a few minutes watching the security guards at the gate trying to confiscate smuggled-in alcohol by ingenious college-age kids. You won't believe the ways that these fans will try to get alcohol into Churchill Downs. I promise, it's great entertainment.

--Friday's Kentucky Oaks for fillies offers the chance to see what might be the best 3-year-old of either sex: Rachel Alexandra. She is a tremendous horse, and if she were running in the Derby, she might well be the horse to beat. But her handlers have, sensibly, stuck to the Oaks, where she'll be a prohobitive favorite -- likely somehwere in the neighborhood of 2-5 or 1-5. The Oaks telecast will be on Bravo (don't ask), and you'd be well-advised to watch. Rachel Alexandra is a special filly, a far more talented horse than, say, Eight Belles, who finished second in the 2008 Derby before suffering a tragic breakdown on the gallop-out and had to be euthanized.

--You can wager on the Derby, along with all of the races from Churchill Downs, at Champaign OTB, which is located in the lower level of Jupiter's at the Crossing. First post for Friday's Oaks Day card and Saturday's Derby Day card (13 races both days) is 9:30 a.m.