Group warns global warming would be devastating to crops

As the planet warms, bringing with it wetter springs and hotter, drier summers in Illinois, one of the state's biggest commodities – corn – will not be immune to the effects of global climate change, according to a report issued Monday by Environment Illinois.

Hotter fields will mean lower yields for corn, and as a result, Illinois corn growers could lose hundreds of millions of dollars a year, the report found.

The advocacy group is encouraging support of wind, solar and other clean energy technologies in advance of a possible vote on the American Clean Energy and Security Act, or the Waxman-Markey bill, in the U.S. House later this week. That legislation promotes renewable sources of energy, carbon capture and sequestration technologies as well as emission limits.

According to scientific models, summers in Illinois at the end of the century could feel more like the summers currently in states to the south and west, a University of Illinois scientist said Monday. Under a higher-emissions scenario, Illinois summers could be like those currently in eastern Texas, said Don Wuebbles, a professor in the UI's Department of Atmospheric Sciences.

"Basically we're talking about very extensive warming," he said. "Chicago has two days of about 100 degrees (Fahrenheit) and a dozen above 90 (degrees Fahrenheit)."

By the end of the century, with a high-emissions scenario, Chicago could have a month of temperatures at 100 degrees or more and an entire summer of temperatures around temperatures at 90 or above, he said.

"It's not so far-fetched. We have to face the fact that we need to do something about this if we're going to avoid the worst of these changes," Wuebbles said.

The Environment Illinois study based its findings on the recent U.S. government's Climate Change Science Program report conducted by the U.S. Department of Agriculture and a dozen other federal agencies. That study estimated rising temperatures will cost U.S. corn growers about $1.4 billion per year in the future.

The estimated damage to Illinois' corn crop due to global warming is at $243 million per year, according to Environment Illinois.

The value of the Illinois corn crop was $5.7 billion in 2007, according to the National Agricultural Statistics Service.

"Corn is very sensitive to temperature in its pollination period," said Wes Jarrell, a local farmer and UI soil scientist.

If planting happens later in the spring due to wet conditions, corn can become stressed due to hot, dry conditions during pollination, which happens later in the growing season.

The "failure temperature" for corn is 95 degrees, and if temperatures reach that mark, even for a few days, during the time the corn seed is being formed, "you can have a significant decrease in production," Wuebbles said.

Corn is a resilient crop, and new hybrids will help, Jarrell said, but the U.S. must adapt and change because of the climate challenges.

"Change is not inevitable. We can avoid the worst of these changes," Wuebbles said.

He called the Waxman-Markey bill "an important first step" in working toward a solution to global warming pollution.

When the House will vote on the bill is not known, said Phil Bloomer, a spokesman for U.S. Rep. Tim Johnson. Johnson, R-Urbana, met last week with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to discuss the bill.

Johnson has supported alternative energies and higher fuel efficiency standards for years, Bloomer said. But the congressman "has real concerns about how this (Waxman bill) will affect the middle class, and farmers in particular," Bloomer said.

"One of the big concerns we have is it be monitored by the U.S. (Department of Agriculture) not the (Environmental Protection Agency)," Bloomer said. "The USDA understands agriculture, and we already have a nationwide presence through (Farm Service Agency) offices. It's got to make economic sense for farmers."