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Indicator's rise makes return to recession seem doubtful

Sat, 07/02/2011 - 12:00pm | The News-Gazette

URBANA — The University of Illinois flash index rose by a full point in June, casting doubt on the possibility of a double-dip recession.

The index rose from 96.8 in May to 97.8 in June. It was the 13th consecutive month the index has risen.

"The increase in the index suggests that the much-discussed double-dip recession is not very likely, although the slow recovery from the recession continues," said J. Fred Giertz of the UI's Institute of Government and Public Affairs.

The index is a weighted average of Illinois growth rates in corporate earnings, consumer spending and personal income.

In June, state corporate and sales tax receipts were up compared with the same month last year, after adjusting for income tax rate increases that took effect earlier this year.

Individual income tax receipts were down slightly from a year ago, after the adjustments.

The June reading was the highest reading since December 2008. The index is now approaching 100, which is the traditional dividing line between growth and decline, Giertz said.

The increase in the flash index coincided with a surprisingly large increase in the Midwest Purchasing Managers Index, Giertz noted in a release from the institute.

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cretis16 wrote on July 02, 2011 at 5:07 pm

Another one of those.." things are gettin better" stories. For 16 months all I read is how much better things are getting..we see light at the end of tunnel, etc. Read the unemployment numbers, then read the housing numbers...how much more spin we gonna get?

thelowedown wrote on July 02, 2011 at 5:07 pm

Things are getting better, they just aren't getting better very fast. People like fast action, boom-and-bust. I'd rather have minuscule growth for a decade leading to a decade of stabilization than our bubble-and-burst disasters. Also, housing will never recover. It was a dangerously and historically gigantic bubble, it burst, and people need to get their ostrich heads out of the sand. Housing is never coming back to what it was. Ever.

yates wrote on July 03, 2011 at 10:07 am

Well if housing never comes back, whats left? That segment fueled most of the economy the last ten years.

David Illinois wrote on July 03, 2011 at 7:07 am

"Individual income tax receipts were down slightly from a year ago, after the adjustments."

But the reality is that the receipts were up big-time because the tax was raised 67%.

sameeker wrote on July 03, 2011 at 11:07 am

I judge the economy by how many people are workinbg in decent paying job, not by how well corporate America is doing. I don't see good jobs being created. The "recovery" is a sham.

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