Commission ratcheting up state tax revenue estimate

Commission ratcheting up state tax revenue estimate

SPRINGFIELD — Bolstered by higher sales tax revenue as a result of increased auto sales, a legislative commission has upped its estimate of Illinois tax revenue for the current fiscal year.

The Legislature's Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability said Tuesday that it is increasing its revenue projections by $369 million, primarily because of an estimated $200 million more from sales taxes.

And that figure could increase again later, said Jim Muschinske, revenue manager for COGFA.

"The increase of $200 million in our forecast is still a very conservative estimate," he told legislators Tuesday. "We could hit that forecast with only a 0.9 percent increase in growth over the remainder of the year, so we think we're well on pace to even surpass that."

October's sales tax revenue grew by $11 million, or 1.7 percent.

Total revenue to the state, for the year ending June 30, 2014, now is estimated at $33.9 billion, up from the earlier estimate of $33.5 billion.

But Muschinske also noted that personal income tax revenue growth has begun to slow, and actually receded slightly in October. But it is up 4 percent for the first quarter of the fiscal year.

"Things, on balance, appear to be doing pretty well," he said. "But there are a couple of big outstanding items. Income taxes, both personal and corporate, there's still a lot of uncertainty."

And revenue from the federal government isn't expected to grow, he said.

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