Polling Place: Without Florida, Trump's lost
Every Tuesday between now and Nov. 8, we’ll provide an updated snapshot of the race for president, as broken down by the number-crunchers at ELECTION ANALYTICS, a nonpartisan website
developed by UI Professor Sheldon Jacobson and his students that analyzes state polling data.
➜ The first presidential debate had a modest impact on the polls. Election Analytics now gives Hillary Clinton a lead in the Electoral College of 300 votes to 238.
➜ The group of primary battleground states has expanded to include Colorado and Pennsylvania, which makes the combinatorics of the Electoral College far more complex, and presents numerous winnings paths for both candidates.
➜ At present, among the primary battleground states, Donald Trump leads in North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa, Arkansas and Colorado, while Clinton leads in Nevada, Florida and Pennsylvania (with Florida and Pennsylvania the two largest primary battleground states). Clinton has also solidified her lead in all the secondary battleground states (Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and New Hampshire).
➜ The critical primary battleground state is Florida, where Clinton strengthened her position over the last week. Clinton can win the White House without Florida — she has several paths to reach 270 Electoral College votes that do not include Florida.
➜ Trump, on the other hand, has few plausible paths to the White House without Florida. It is a “must win” for him.
➜ Election Analytics now gives Clinton a 95 percent chance of getting to 270 Electoral College votes.