Polling place: Hillary holding steady
Every Tuesday between now and Nov. 8, we'll provide an updated snapshot of the race for president, as broken down by the number-crunchers at ELECTION ANALYTICS, a nonpartisan website developed by UI Professor Sheldon Jacobson and his students that analyzes state polling data.
— Donald Trump's surge ended with the first presidential debate. With the second debate behind us, as well as other recent events affecting the two candidates, polls over the next week will begin to absorb their effect and determine whether voters have moved their choice.
— Hillary Clinton continues to maintain her sizeable lead in the Electoral College, with 330 votes to Trump's 208. States that moved decisively for Clinton over the past week include Florida, North Carolina, Nevada and Colorado. Trump continued to hold his lead, though very tenuously, in Ohio, Iowa and Arizona.
— Election Analytics now gives Clinton a 99 percent chance of winning. With just four weeks to go, the race is once again hers to lose.
— Several hotly contested Senate races have shifted in favor of Democratic candidates. Election Analytics now gives the Republicans a 66 percent of holding onto their majority. The likelihood of a tie has shrunk to 27 percent.
— Election Analytics added "David and Goliath" feature to its site this week, providing a statistical comparison of the accuracy of Election Analytics (the "David") and fivethirtyeight.com (the "Goliath"). In head-to-head forecasts, since 2008, Election Analytics is on average 14 percent more accurate. It's run by a group of engineering and computer science students at the University of Illinois.
FOR MORE: Visit electionanalytics.cs.illinois.edu