UI analytics team: Clinton pushes Electoral College lead to 339-199

UI analytics team: Clinton pushes Electoral College lead to 339-199

Every Tuesday between now and Nov. 8, we’ll provide an updated snapshot of the race for president, as broken down by the number crunchers at Election Analytics, a nonpartisan website, developed by UI Professor Sheldon Jacobson and his students, that analyzes state polling data. 

— With just two weeks to go before Election day, Election Analytics gives Hillary Clinton a commanding lead over Donald Trump in the Electoral College, 339 votes to 199. 

— Clinton has managed to grow and solidify her lead in Florida, a critical state that Trump must take if he wishes to reach 270. Clinton has also polled well in North Carolina, Nevada and Arizona.  

— On the other hand, Trump has been solid in Iowa and remains competitive in Ohio. For Trump to have a historic comeback this late in the race, he would need to win all these states, plus a state like New Hampshire or Colorado. He trails in both. 

— The Senate continues to be a battle. Six races dominate the headlines — in North Carolina, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Nevada, Missouri and Indiana. Wisconsin may also be competitive, though it is leaning strongly to Democrat Russ Feingold.  

— Democrat Tammy Duckworth leads incumbent Republican Mark Kirk for the Illinois Senate seat on the ballot.  

— Election Analytics gives the GOP a 19 percent chance of retaining control of the Senate. This number has been as high as 87 percent over the past three weeks, indicating the volatility of the analysis. The chance of a tie now stands at 46 percent. In such a case, Clinton winning the White House would give the Democrats control of the Senate.  

For more: Visit electionanalytics.cs.illinois.edu

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ohnoes wrote on October 25, 2016 at 3:10 pm

Here's a sincere, non-snarky piece of advice: this is an opportunity to do some real journalism (not that you don't elsewhere), but word is that the most recent Wikileaks dump includes an email from John Podesta indicating that polls have been manipulated using a technique called oversampling.  I think these projections are based on the polls, correct?

cydnab wrote on October 25, 2016 at 4:10 pm

I don't trust these numbers at all.