Polling Place: Hillary's lead shrinking
Five things to know about the national picture, from the UI's Election Analytics, a website that analyzes state polling data:
1 With just one week to go, Election Analytics gives Hillary Clinton a significant, albeit shrinking, lead over Donald Trump in the Electoral College — 321 votes to 217. At this point, no credible website or forecasters give Trump a realistic chance of winning the election.
2 That being said, Trump's polling numbers in Florida, Iowa, Ohio, Nevada, Arizona and North Carolina have all improved over the past week.
3 Utah remains an enigma. In what's traditionally been a reliable red state, independent Evan McMullin is posing a significant challenge to Trump for the state's six EC votes.
4 Six key Senate races — in North Carolina, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Nevada, Indiana and Missouri — will determine who controls the upper house. Wisconsin may also be in play, though former Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold has been consistently ahead of incumbent Republican Ron Johnson for several weeks.
5 The Senate math is quite simple. Assuming Clinton wins the White House, the Republicans need to win four of those six races. The Republicans currently lead in Missouri, while the Democrats lead in Indiana. North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Nevada and New Hampshire are all true toss-ups; control of the Senate will come down to those four races. The chance of a tie now stands at 35 percent.
For daily updates from Election Analytics, a nonpartisan website developed by UI Professor Sheldon Jacobson and his students, visit electionanalytics.cs.illinois.edu.