Polling Place, Nov. 8, 2016: Clinton's chances at 99 percent
With the big day finally upon us, here's one final updated snapshot of the race for president, as broken down by the number crunchers at ELECTION ANALYTICS, a nonpartisan website developed by UI Professor Sheldon Jacobson and his students that analyzes state polling data.
Election Analytics gives Hillary Clinton a greater than 99 percent chance of being named the 45th president, with a 304-233 margin of victory in the Electoral College. Under a very strong Republication swing for undecided voters, she still has a 90 percent chance of winning, with a 287-251 margin of victory.
There are six primary battleground states to watch. Donald Trump appears to be in position to win three (Arizona, Iowa, Ohio), with Nevada also leaning in his favor. The other two are wild cards, with a slight lean toward Clinton in North Carolina and a slight lean for Trump in Florida.
Without Florida, Nevada and North Carolina, Trump's path to victory evaporates. New Hampshire has come into play for him, but it will only be important if he wins the six primary battleground states.
Colorado is an even longer shot than New Hampshire for Trump, and Big Ten states Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin all appear to be stretches for him.
If Clinton wins Florida, she wins the election. If Trump wins Florida and Clinton wins North Carolina, she forces Trump to take a state like Pennsylvania, where polls show him to be significantly behind.
Six key races continue to be the focus in the Senate. Election Analytics gives Missouri, New Hampshire and North Carolina a lean to the Republican candidates, and Pennsylvania a lean to the Democrats. Indiana and Nevada are true toss-ups.
The chance of a tie now stands at 20 percent, with the chance of the GOP retaining control of the Senate at 74 percent, the most likely scenario.
FOR MORE: Visit electionanalytics.cs.illinois.edu