Listening to a presentation from Ralph Martire, the executive director of the Chicago-based Center for Tax and Budget Accountability, is almost painful.

It's not that Martire is a poor speaker. He's actually entertaining, a policy wonk with a penchant for shtick. But his message about Illinois' worsening financial outlook is so ugly and depressing. Such as:

– Many of the good manufacturing jobs have left the state, replaced by low-pay, low-benefits service sector jobs.

– GDP growth lags behind the rest of the United States as well as the rest of the Midwest.

– Thirty percent of the population is on Medicaid or is uninsured. Public schools, including colleges and universities, are woefully underfunded.

– The state government has an enormous pension debt.

– And local government is too reliant on property taxes.

Enough!

After all that, he says this: Illinois is a low-tax state and needs to increase its income tax and broaden its sales tax.

The sooner we do that, Martire says, the sooner we can dig ourselves out of what he called a $13 billion budget hole, improve our schools, work to eliminate an education and wage achievement gap and reinvigorate the state economy.

Just the message taxpayers want to hear in the middle of a recession, right?

But Martire says Illinois' combined state and local tax burden as a percentage of personal income ranks 41st in the country. It turns out he's not alone in that contention. Both the U.S. Census Bureau and the Tax Foundation, a nonpartisan research group, say essentially the same thing.

But what are we to make of Republican gubernatorial candidates who insist that tax increases aren't needed and all the governor and Legislature must do is cut spending – billions of dollars of it?

"The people who tell you that we'll solve the state's budget problems with cuts are not leveling with you," he said.

He's right, and even though there may be some disagreement about the exact numbers, the bottom line is the state is in bad shape and it's getting worse. If you think this fiscal year is tough, next year is horrendous.

The state is $3 billion behind paying old bills. It has used $5 billion in one-time revenue, including about $2 billion in federal stimulus, to support this year's budget. Tax revenue for this year's budget is running about a billion dollars behind projections. That's $9 billion. Add another $2 billion in new pension obligations and you're well past $11 billion.

That's $11 billion out of a $26 billion general fund budget. So cut several billion dollars – say the $8.8 billion in general funds that pays for elementary and secondary education – and you're close to a balanced budget.

No problem, right? Wrong.

Martire's right to warn taxpayers that the day of reckoning is here (actually it's past due, we've just borrowed more to delay it).

The Republican gubernatorial candidates can pretend otherwise, but one of them may "discover" upon taking office early in 2011 that things are worse than expected and we can't just cut our way out of this long-developing financial predicament.

It's happened to other Republicans (remember Govs. Ogilvie, Thompson and Edgar), and it could – depending on which party wins next year's election – happen again.

Congressional finances

The Web site OpenSecrets.org (operated by the Center for Responsive Politics) reports that U.S. Rep. Tim Johnson, R-Urbana, ranks as one of the 150 wealthiest members of the 435-member House of Representatives.

Johnson also is fifth-wealthiest of the 19-member Illinois congressional delegation, trailing only Reps. Bill Foster, D-Geneva; Judy Biggert, R-Hinsdale; Luis Gutierrez, D-Chicago; and Daniel Lipinski, D-Chicago. All have net worth of at least $700,000.

Johnson's net worth is estimated at between $699,030 and $2 million.

His assets include certificates of deposit at 11 area banks in Champaign, Ford and Douglas counties; rent from a condominium in which he holds a half interest; and capital gains and dividends from a number of stock funds. Johnson also received $64,554 last year from his Illinois legislative pension.

Foster ranks 19th among all congressmen with a net worth of between $6.6 million and $28.8 million. Most of his wealth comes from payments over time for his sale of his interest in Electronic Theatre Controls Inc., a company he founded with his brother in 1975.

Most other members of the Illinois delegation rank in the bottom half in terms of personal wealth. Rep. Phil Hare, D-Rock Island, is No. 425, with more liabilities than assets.

Among senators, Roland Burris is 69th and Dick Durbin is 70th. Burris' net worth is estimated at between $404,020 and $1.59 million. His income last year, when he was not a senator, included $118,201 from his state pension, $93,492 from his partnership draw from the Chicago firm of Burris & Lebed Consulting, more than $60,000 in attorney fees and $63,600 in director's fees from Inland Real Estate Corp.

Durbin's biggest financial assets are his Springfield home, valued at $250,000, and a Chicago condominium, valued at $275,000. He has a net worth of between $831,377 and $1 million.

Tom Kacich is a News-Gazette editor and columnist. His column runs on Sundays and Wednesdays. He can be reached at 351-5221 or at kacich<@>news-gazette.com.