SPRINGFIELD – Illinois revenue improved a bit last month, but an official with the state's Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability cautioned that one month does not make a trend.

The personal income tax – the state's largest revenue source – gained 7.4 percent or $47 million last month compared with August 2009.

"Don't read too much into one month," said Jim Muschinske, revenue manager for the commission. "We had an extra receipting day in August. That can have an impact. I mean, July was down 1.1 percent for the month so it could just be month-by-month fluctuations.

"Obviously I'd rather be up by 7 percent than down by 7 percent, though," Muschinske said. "No one should expect, based on the current employment figures, any type of marked turnaround of 7 percent. That's just not going to happen."

The good news, he said, "is at least we haven't lost any revenue, which we had the last couple of years."

Overall, state-source revenue was up 11 percent in August, compared with a year earlier. State-source revenue totalled $1.64 billion last month, the same as in August 2008. In August 2009 it was $1.47 billion.

"This is going to be a transition, between the worst of the recession's impact and then hopefully in 2012 you'll start seeing some measurable improvement. But between '10 and '12, you're going to have a year of transition. Any time you have that kind of period, it will be characterized by volatile figures that include good months and bad months.

"A recovery is characterized by fits and starts, it's not linear. In fact we appear to be going through a soft patch now, where things appear to have slowed down."

State sales tax collections, during a month that included a 10-day sales tax holiday on back-to-school items, were up slightly last month, to $538 million, from $532 million in August 2009.

Muschinske said it was too early to tell the effect of the sales tax holiday. The Department of Revenue should have a better idea by sometime in October, he said.

Federal government transfers to state government dropped to $399 million last month, compared with $604 million in August 2009. That trend is expected to continue this year with the phase-out of the federal stimulus program.