Given the serious fiscal issues dead ahead, this country is lucky the economy is generating any new jobs at all.
The good news — and it's not very good — is that the U.S. economy created 80,000 new jobs in June. The bad news is that the economy needs to generate 125,000 jobs each month just to keep up with the new entrants into the American workforce.
So it's one step forward and one step backward in our lagging recovery, where unemployment remains at 8.2 percent nationwide for June. In Illinois, May unemployment numbers showed a rate of 8.6 percent, way too high but still better than the 9.1 percent in February and 8.8 percent in March.
So where do we go from here? According to one expert, Bernard Baumohl, chief global economist from the Economic Outlook Group, nowhere.
He said the "economy is close to shutting down until we get a better sense of what's going to happen over the course of the next year."
What he means is that the economic uncertainty, caused by the mess in European financial markets and uneasiness at home over U.S. economic policies, has entrepreneurs, businesses and investors so nervous that they're holding on to their money to see what happens.
The American economy continues to struggle to recover from the brutal recession caused by the collapse of the real estate market and the near-collapse of the banking system in 2008-09. The real danger now is not that the economy will continue to grow slowly but that it will fall back into recession.
There is not much this country can do about Europe's problems. The European Union created them, and only the European Union can solve them.
But this country's political class — the president and Congress — are responsible for the economic policies that have resulted in uncertainty here at home.
President Barack Obama has indicated that he plans to allow the Bush-era tax cuts to expire on Jan. 1, a move that will pull many millions of dollars out of the U.S. economy and adversely affect economic growth. Members of Congress have indicated they prefer a different approach, and the longer it takes to settle the issue, the longer it will take to get the economy moving in a more robust fashion.
The second problem, which is unavoidable at this point following the U.S. Supreme Court's affirmance of the Affordable Care Act, is the undetermined effect of Obama's hugely expensive health care program.
Most employers have no idea what it will cost them. Until they do, they're going to be reluctant to do more hiring.
Those national problems are compounded in Illinois, where state government is broke and state policies are hardly friendly to business.
It's impossible to have a growing economy when consumers are nervous about spending, when employers are reluctant to hire, when everyone is waiting for the other shoe to drop.
But that's what we have now, and what we'll have for a while — and the longer the skittishness lasts, the more people will be hurt.
The Great Depression started in 1929, and lasted for close to ten years. To expect that the U.S. will recover in four, or six years is foolish. People are always impatient. They want things now just like their fast food. We know what led to the Great Recession. To expect that returning to the policies that caused it will improve it is foolish. Do we really want less regulation in banking? The people who caused the Great Recession are doing fine. The rest of us are paying the bill for it. A dysfunctional, and corrupt Congress based on no compromise, and a stupid pledge has continued to make things worse. Moderates in Congress have been replaced by extremists in both parties. The country is a divided nation that has dumbed down. Part of the dumbing down is due to the media's assistance in polarizing the electorate for the media's business interests. So, we are going "nowhere" fast. We will not go any where until the electorate has the issues placed in front of them in a bipartisan manner by the media.
The Bush tax cuts, along with huge military expenditures are what have given us the deficits everyone is so "skittish" about.
But all the NG sees is the Obamacare bogeyman. Well I remain unconvinced. It is runaway healthcare costs that is bankrupting business. The present healthcare system is what is bankrupting us. Health insurance premiums over the past couple of decades have doubled every 5 years.
We spend about $8000 per capita yearly on healthcare but we don't get our money's worth. The UK spends $3500 with everyone covered by single payor and much better outcomes than ours.
Put another way: we spend 16% of gross domestic product on healthcare. The UK 8%.
This link shows how our outcomes compare to other advanced societies...http://www.healthofnations.com/countries/map/outcomes/
We do not have the best healthcare in the world, countries with single payor do if we look at a wide range of metrics and and a variety of indicators.
Employers are overburdened with the cost of providing health insurance. Our companies are less competitive than those of other countries precisely because of the healthcare crisis.
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