Penn State opened the week as a one-point favorite against Illinois in Saturday''s game in Happy Valley.
Just one more case where statistics lie and perceptions prevail.
Consider:
In an 11-game stretch, the normal length of a college season, Penn State has lost eight times while Illinois is the exact opposite at 8-3.
For all the importance gamblers tend to give the homefield, Illinois is 6-2 dating through last season.
In Penn State''s seven 2000 games that include nonleague affairs with Southern California, Toledo, Louisiana Tech and Pitt, Joe Pa''s Nittany Lions stack up 10th in the Big Ten in passing yardage (149.3), 10th in pass efficiency, 10th in rushing (115.9), 10th in scoring (17.4), 10th in sacks allowed and let me catch my breath 10th in first downs, 11th in total offense, 11th in punt returns and 11th in third-down conversions.
In one fewer game, Illinois has 494 more yards from scrimmage, a vastly higher pass efficiency rating, 51 more points, 19 more first downs and a defense that, while heavily criticized, is permitting 18.8 points to Penn State''s 23.1.
Tradition, Joe Pa weigh heavily
How, then, does Saturday''s homecoming affair stack up as basically a "pick ''em" contest? Let''s see now.
How about tradition? This is the UI''s 10th try, and some of the current players'' parents weren''t even alive when Illinois posted its lone win, 10-8, on a Marshall Starks TD sweep in 1960.
How about Joe Paterno? Anyone who thinks the Big Ten''s elder statesman is over the hill is hallucinating. The 35-year Penn State coach has been scheming throughout a bye week after playing Minnesota a lot closer in the Hump Dome than Illinois did.
How about talent? Penn State has the inside track on a huge geographical area that is generally untapped by other Big Ten members. Penn State recruiting classes are routinely among the nation''s top 10, creating a preseason assumption that Paterno would be able to "reload" at 15 positions where starters departed.
What''ll it be? Past or present?
"I don''t look at the record" is the way Illini coach Ron Turner puts it.
"What I see on tape is a good, athletic football team ... big and physical, with guys who run well, and lots of speed and explosiveness in the backfield."
For Turner, it''s just another week chock-full of challenges.
But his team is upbeat again. Illinois recovered from its Minnesota debacle by taking a week off and blanked Iowa 31-0. Penn State made its best effort in beating Purdue 22-20 before falling to the Gophers 25-16, and had the valuable bye week to get ready for Saturday. The homecoming atmosphere in the Valley will be thunderous. Emotion will be a factor.
Fred Wakefield, emerging as the UI team spokesman, probably put it best Monday when he said:
"You can''t underestimate a team with that many weapons and that coach. You know the program and you know the coach, and you know it''ll turn around in a hurry.
"They''ll be motivated. It''s an exciting place to play with a lot of people who really get into the game. There''s such a rich tradition. And with (Rashard) Casey, they have a quarterback with outstanding moves ... a spin here, a spin there, and he''s in the end zone."
Casey broke open a close game last year in Champaign, entering at midgame after the Illini had fought the Nittany Lions to a 7-7 halftime tie.
If history counts, Illinois is the underdog. But if recent events carry weight, Illinois has every reason to be optimistic. Illinois played better last November and considerably better last month than Penn State. The frontline Illini players have had more success than the new Penn State regulars.
What we have, from the UI standpoint, is a crossroads, these Illini setting out on a two-week road trip that could define the season. Both opponents, Penn State and Michigan State, are down and grumbling, but neither has lost to Illinois since 1992 (when the Illini beat the Spartans 14-10).
Two wins would make the Illini bowl-eligible. Two losses to apparent second-division rivals would set Illinois on an unwanted course.
It''s decision time. Is the past prelude to the present? Or are these Illini primed to shed the unhappy patterns of other days?
Loren Tate writes for The News-Gazette.
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