Future of farming: Changes, challenges
By RON WARFIELD

   "I believe in the future of farming."
   I made that pledge in 1957 as a member of the Gibson City chapter of the Future Farmers of America.
   As we in agriculture enter the 21st century, I still believe in the future of farming.
   My farm in 2000 has little resemblance to our family farm in the 1950s. Then we grew oats and alfalfa as well as corn and soybeans. Hogs and cattle were raised on pasture. We picked corn and put it in wooden cribs. We shipped cattle to the Chicago stockyards, and hogs to the local sale barn – one pickup at a time.
   Today, when I say that I believe in the future of farming, I clearly understand that my farm in the future will not resemble my farm today. It will be different in terms of what I produce, how I market, and the general business practices that I operate by. I can't predict how fast that change will take place, but it will happen.
   Projecting today's farm trends into the future does not necessarily predict the future. If a farmer in 1900 had been asked what he would need in the 20th century, he probably would have wished for a larger breed of horse that ate fewer oats. Almost no one at the turn of the last century foresaw the tractor and the coming mechanical revolution in farming. We probably are no more farsighted today.
   With that caution, I offer several ideas about the future of farming in Illinois.
   Farming in the 21st century will deliver some of what we saw in the 20th century. This includes volatile swings in prices and incomes, rapid changes in technology, and continued changes in the structure of our industry that shake the very foundation of our business.
   These trends will continue amid the phenomenal changes that swept our industry in the last century.
   I believe we are in the middle of an era when farmers will continue to produce more food and fiber – in a more environmentally friendly manner – than at any time in history.
   Illinois' farm resources include the world's best farmers, richest soils, abundant rainfall and a strong agricultural research tradition. These are the resources that give this area an unmatched competitive advantage in the increasingly global business of farming.
   The world-class food-producing resources of central Illinois allow intensive farming and maximum, sustainable output. Central Illinois fields, converted to cropland from grasslands more than 150 years ago, will allow the world to feed itself in the 21st century without converting millions of acres of fragile, untilled land around the globe.
   In a very real sense, central Illinois farmers operating in freer world markets can help preserve Amazon rain forest and Asian wetlands.
   Our future global opportunities are dependent upon open and competitive markets. We face consolidations and mergers of firms that supply inputs to farmers, and of others that buy products from us. Farm Bureau is working to protect the interest of farmers in the marketplace by ensuring competition, open access to information and markets that provide efficient and effective price discovery. While these challenges remain, I am confident we will succeed.
   If that is the case, Illinois farms in the future will not only be more productive, but more diverse.
   The farming diversity of the past – where almost every farm raised many types of livestock and several crops – will be replaced by diversity between farms. I might produce one set of crops on my farm while my neighbors may produce something very different. There will not be one model for success, but many.
   Some farms will be large, high-tech and geared toward producing corn and soybeans at the lowest possible cost. Inputs will be precision-controlled by computers linked to global positioning satellites – a technology that has been pioneered in this area.
   Another type of successful farmer will be one who has established a profitable niche for himself outside the current commodity markets. He or she will specialize in serving a particular market – a market for a well-defined product that meets consumer wants and rewards producers for providing the specific product.
   Finally, some farmers will remain in crop production but pursue second careers away from the farm, both for income and the pursuit of complementary interests.
   Farming will be different in East Central Illinois in the 21st century – different in ways we cannot now imagine. But the one constant will be the skill and intelligence of the farm families in this area who will make change work for them and the consumers we serve.
   
   Ronald R. Warfield of Gibson City was elected in December 1993 as the 13th president of the Illinois Farm Bureau. Active in state and national agricultural matters, Warfield is a member of the U.S. Department of Agriculture's National Agricultural Research, Extension, Education & Economics Advisory Board and was appointed in 1998 to the Governor's Commission on Property Tax Reform created to focus on reducing the property tax burden for schools. He has traveled extensively internationally, discussing trade policies and promoting agriculture in China and Southeast Asia, Brazil, Argentina and Cuba.

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